Today's Adventure in the Biz Opp Jungle:
'In which Charlie exposes the truth behind betting 'miracle systems'... and hears the secrets of a genuine odds compiler'.
Hi,
Imagine your best mate was an experienced odds compiler, who worked for a bookmaker.
Who would you go to for information about a bet?
Would it be him... the guy whose job it was to analyse every piece of data? Who gets paid by betting shops to know all the angles?
Or would it be some shady character whose magic formula is so successful he has to bullsh*t you in a sales letter?
My money is on the odds compiler.
So if you're considering putting your hard-earned cash into the latest "can't fail" betting strategy. (And you know the ones I mean!) Then check out what this odds compiler has to say.
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The truth about 'wonder strategies'
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Mr X, an insider who has spent 28 years setting odds for the likes of Hills, Ladbrokes and Corals, says this:
"I HAVEN'T perfected a secret gambling 'wonderstrategy' that means you never lose. Any successful bettor who tells you they never lose is LYING. I don't have a 'miracle system' that means you win 100% of the time."
And this is from a guy who crunches numbers, statistics, and probabilities on a daily basis!
"Take horse racing," he says. "On any occasion when you've put money on the horses, can you honestly say that you knew as well as the trainer whether that horse was fit and well?
"Did you know how well he had galloped the day before? Did you know whether his trainer really wanted him to win? Did you know whether he had weight hidden under his saddle? Whether inside information had been traded?
"Because you can pretty much guarantee that the bookmakers did. And that is why I challenge anyone who claims they can beat the bookies on the gee- gees."
Strong words, but this guy knows his onions.
I actually met "Mr X" in person a few years ago through a contact in the publishing industry. He's a disarmingly honest and straightforward guy.
For instance, I always thought the 'X" thing was a fancy way of marketing himself. In the same way as I once thought of calling myself "Captain Wow".
(Joke.)
But he really does work for big name bookies, so he really DOES have to stay anonymous.
I stay in touch from time to time. You know me, I never let a contact go. I'm like a dog with a bone. Without them I wouldn't be able to product a newsletter like this.
They're worth their weight in platinum.
Anyway, if you are eager to read what he has to say, click here:
http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSCWE
So, according to Mr X, if you're going to put money on sports bets... what DOES work, then?
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The secret of 'value' bets
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The key is to spot those occasions where the bookies get the odds wrong, and exploit the 'value'.
He puts it better than I can:
"Say you toss a coin. It is 'Even Money' against either side landing face up, right? A two-horse race, if you like, in which both runners have an exactly equal chance of winning.
Every pound you put on heads landing face up, should only give you £2 back: the £1 win plus your £1 stake returned.
But if a bookmaker were to offer you a price of 2/1 for the coin landing heads up, then they've given you a value opportunity.
Every pound you put on heads will give you £3 if you're right (The £2 win plus your original £1 investment).
In other words, you have the chance to invest at odds greater than the probability of the outcome. You have found value.
So of the probability of a result is really 2/1, you want to buy in at 9/4. If the probability is 5/2, you want to find someone offering it at 11/4...or more of course!
And no matter what your sports knowledge is, or the probabilities you have to weigh up, this central profit- making principle remains: find genuine value and you MASSIVELY increase your chances of making money on a consistent basis."
This is how the overall return from all Mr X's tips, including wins and losses are as follows:
* 12% in 2002
* 15% in 2003
* 21% in 2004
* 22% in 2005
* 39% in 2006
(I have verified these with the publisher, Dave Gibson, at Oxfordshire Press, whom I also know personally.)
Okay, so it's not the kind of money that you could leave you job for. I don't think he ever pretends that it is.
But it's a realistic claim, for a change. And if you like sports betting - football, tennis, Formula One, rugby, etc - this is fascinating stuff to get into.
You can check out Mr X's words of wisdom in full if you click here:
http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSCWE
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This kind of investing isn't for high rollers
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The downside of Mr X's approach to sports betting is that most high rollers hate the statistical approach.
There's no magic system or mystical secret. There's no hidden cameras in the jockey's changing rooms.
Your attitude needs to be that of a patient investor.
And you have to stick with this guy. All the bookie cock-ups he spots will, over time, move the odds in your favour.
But you can't just wander in and wander out, picking and choosing bets in a willy-nilly manner.
It's a cumulative thing
And yes, you'll have to take many losses as well as wins. (Please, never invest more than you can afford to lose!) But overall, those wins should out-way the losses. As an odds compiler, Mr X can give you the edge, that's all.
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The offer, in a nutshell
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Here's how his service works.
First, you decide how much money you want to set aside for your betting pot. You divide it by 250. This gives you value of each 'point'.
You then get Mr X's monthly newsletter and weekly emails, where you'll get 15 bets every month. Some will be for that weekend. Others may be longer term.
You must place every bet. Not every bet will win - but by following 'value', overtime profits will build and build.
There's a 3-month guarantee, so you can always test him out on paper first if your fingers have been burned.
Take a look here and see what you think:
http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSCWE
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Update on Simply Losers
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Just to keep you informed, it looks like Simply Losers lay system from Agora is having a bad run (sorry about the pun) of results at the moment. Thanks for your emails regarding this.
I will still look into it for the future but I'm going to look at some other Agora stuff first.
If you're interested in my view on various betting opportunities, please check out the reviews on my website:
http://www.bizoppjungle.com
Later alligator
Charlie Wright
The Biz Opp Jungle